One website, http://www.longbets.org/ has a system whereby members can bet on long-term social and scientific changes and developments. Back in 2002, member Jason Epstein predicted that by 2010, half of all books would be printed on demand in bookstores right at the cash register.
Challenger Vint Cerf took the bet and the two agreed on a wager of $2,000 (the winnings are donated to charity). Cerf’s argument wasn’t that books would continue to be produced in the same way. Rather, he contends that the market would settle on a digital distribution model. In other words, that people would read books on their laptops and PDAs.
We are now 18 months away from the conclusion of this bet. Who will win? Is it possible that neither prediction will come true?
Isn’t it interesting that neither of these bets takes serious consideration of the possibility of On-Demand printing by online book sellers?
You can voice your opinion at www.longbets.org/6.
Remember, you can always publish yourself at http://www.wwaow.com/!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment